SEATTLE (Interstat) — The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners will play a decisive Game 5 of their American League Division Series on Friday night at T-Mobile Park, with a spot in the AL Championship Series on the line.

The best-of-five series is tied 2-2. The Tigers evened it with a 9-3 victory in Detroit on Wednesday, powered by a home run and four RBIs from Javier Báez. The Mariners had taken the series lead with an 8-4 win in Game 3.

Detroit will send left-hander Tarik Skubal (14-6, 3.18 ERA) to the mound. The Mariners had not announced a starting pitcher as of Thursday.

The game features two teams that finished the regular season with nearly identical records; the Mariners went 92-74, while the Tigers finished 91-78. They have split the first four games of this series, with the home team winning each contest.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT under cloudy skies with a temperature near 58 degrees.

Despite the Tigers being a slight betting favorite, statistical models give the edge to Seattle. Interstat’s game simulator projects a 5-4 Mariners victory, and its ELO system gives Seattle a 58.5% probability to win.