CFB

Missouri State 21, at Liberty 17

Saturday, November 8, 2025 · Final · Bowl Subdivision

Bowl Subdivision 1 2 3 4 PTS

Missouri State Bears

7-6 · L3 · #120 (1326 ELO +41)

0 0 7 14 21

Liberty Flames

4-8 · L4 · #128 (1295 ELO -41)

7 3 0 7 17

Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg, VA

Missouri State at Liberty

LYNCHBURG, Va. (Interstat) — Jacob Clark connected with Tristian Gardner on a 13-yard touchdown pass with 27 seconds remaining to cap a stunning fourth-quarter comeback, lifting Missouri State to a 21-17 victory over Liberty on Saturday at Williams Stadium. The Bears, who were outgained and largely outplayed for three quarters, scored 14 points in the final period to erase a 10-point deficit and snatch a victory that defied pregame projections. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a Liberty win by a margin of 42-15, and its ELO system gave the Flames a 70 percent probability to win. Instead, Missouri State (6-3)… Read more...

Top Statlines

Jacob Clark MOST 33/20-286yd 2td 1td
Ethan Vasko LIB 35/18-196yd 1td
Evan Dickens LIB 28run-127yd 1td

Forecasting

ELO Probability LIB 73.7%

Spread MOST +7.5

Projected Score LIB 42 MOST 15

Money Line LIB -290/MOST +240

Over/Under 51.5 (Under)