GRAMBLING, La. (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of expectations, the Texas Southern Tigers capitalized on a series of critical Grambling mistakes and rode a dominant ground game to a 21-20 victory Saturday at Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium.

The win, sealed by a final defensive stand in the closing minutes, improved Texas Southern to 2-3 on the season, while Grambling fell to 3-2. The outcome defied pregame projections, as Interstat’s game simulator had forecast a 42-26 Grambling win and its ELO system gave the home Tigers a 64.9 percent probability of victory.

The story of the game was written on the ground, where Texas Southern’s Athean Renfro delivered a powerhouse performance. Renfro gashed the Grambling defense for 152 yards on 18 carries, including a breathtaking 60-yard touchdown sprint in the final two minutes of the first half that gave his team a commanding lead.

While Renfro provided the explosive plays, the Texas Southern offense methodically controlled the clock. Jacob Washington complemented Renfro with 69 yards on 11 carries, as the visiting Tigers consistently moved the chains on the ground.

Texas Southern quarterback KJ Cooper of El Paso, Texas, managed the game effectively, completing 11 of 20 passes for 89 yards. His most significant contribution came through the air, however, as he connected with tight end Xavier Phipps of Houston on a 7-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter. Cooper also added a 1-yard touchdown run in the third quarter.

Grambling’s offense, meanwhile, was plagued by turnovers and missed opportunities. The home Tigers moved the ball at times, with running back Tre Bradford of undefined hometown amassing 120 yards on 11 carries, including a 76-yard burst that set up a scoring chance. But three lost fumbles and a key interception stifled multiple promising drives.

Quarterback Ashton Frye of Springville, Alabama, led Grambling’s attack, completing 9 of 11 passes for 81 yards and adding 43 yards on the ground, including a 15-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. He also connected with receiver Tyson George of Zachary, Louisiana, on a 35-yard pass that set up a late first-half score.

The game began with Grambling striking first. Frye engineered an opening drive that he capped himself with a 15-yard scramble for a touchdown. The extra point attempt failed, leaving the score at 6-0.

Texas Southern responded in the second quarter, embarking on a sustained drive that culminated in Cooper’s 7-yard touchdown pass to Phipps. The successful extra point put the visiting Tigers ahead 7-6.

Just before halftime, Renfro broke the game open. Taking a handoff, he found a seam and outraced the Grambling defense for a 60-yard touchdown, extending the Texas Southern lead to 14-6.

Grambling answered with a quick-strike drive before the half. A long kickoff return by Tony Phillips of Kankakee, Illinois, set up excellent field position. Frye then hit George for 35 yards down to the 1-yard line, and Byron Eaton Jr. of Dallas punched it in from there. The successful extra point cut the deficit to 14-13 at the break.

Texas Southern extended its lead on its first possession of the second half. A methodical drive, powered by Renfro and Washington, marched down the field and was finished by Cooper’s 1-yard quarterback sneak, making the score 21-13.

The fourth quarter became a defensive struggle. Grambling, seeking a tying score and two-point conversion, turned to quarterback C’zavian Teasett of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, who provided a spark. Teasett completed all four of his pass attempts for 62 yards, moving the Tigers into Texas Southern territory on multiple occasions.

However, the Grambling drive that reached the Texas Southern 9-yard line ended in disaster when running back Clyde McClendon Jr. of Baton Rouge fumbled, with Texas Southern’s Damarcus Thompson of Corcoran, California, recovering.

Texas Southern’s offense, unable to run out the clock, gave Grambling one final chance. But the visiting Tigers’ defense held firm, with a key interception by Edric Whitley of Austin, Texas, and a final series of stops deep in their own territory to preserve the one-point victory.

The win marks a significant momentum shift for Texas Southern, which now looks ahead to a home contest against Virginia Lynchburg next Saturday. Grambling will aim to rebound on the road at Arkansas-Pine Bluff.