LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Interstat) — In a season-opening upset, the Michigan State Spartans edged the Louisville Cardinals 4-3 on Friday at Jim Patterson Stadium, riding a strong start from pitcher Aidan Donovan and timely home runs to overcome a significant pregame deficit in projected probability.

Interstat’s ELO system had given Louisville a 76.20 percent chance to win, but the Spartans, who managed only five hits, made their opportunities count to begin their season 1-0. The Cardinals, a perennial powerhouse, dropped to 0-1.

The most critical phase of the game unfolded in the middle innings, transforming a tight contest and ultimately providing Michigan State’s decisive margin. The Spartans had carried a 4-0 lead, built in the first inning, into the fifth. There, they added two crucial runs when Sam Seymour delivered a two-run single to left field, scoring Landen Broski and Jack Williams for a 4-1 advantage.

Louisville’s offense, stifled for much of the afternoon by Donovan and reliever Nolan Higgins, erupted in the bottom of the seventh to turn the game tense. Ben Slanker led off with a solo home run to left center. Bayram Hot followed with a single, stole second, and later scored on a two-out RBI single by Dylan Moore, pulling the Cardinals within a single run at 4-3. The rally continued as Moore stole second and Patrick Alicea walked, putting the potential go-ahead run on base, but Higgins struck out Logan Nugent to end the threat.

Michigan State immediately answered in the top of the eighth to reclaim momentum. Facing new pitcher Casen Murphy, Seymour launched a solo home run to left field, restoring the Spartans’ two-run cushion at 5-3. That insurance run proved vital.

The Cardinals threatened repeatedly in the late innings but could not equalize. In the eighth, they put runners on first and second with one out against reliever Joseph Grundman. After a pitching change to Ryan Szczepanski, Hot struck out swinging to end the inning. In the ninth, pinch-runner Kyle Campbell stole second base representing the tying run with one out, but Szczepanski struck out Griffin Crain and Moore looking to seal the victory.

Donovan earned the win for Michigan State, allowing one run on five hits over five innings of work. Higgins provided key relief before Szczepanski secured the save. Louisville starter Ethan Eberle took the loss, charged with four runs on three hits in four-plus innings.

Offensively, Seymour led Michigan State with a home run, a single and three RBIs. Broski also homered. For Louisville, Slanker finished with a home run, a double and two RBIs, while Hot scored twice.

The two teams continue their series at Jim Patterson Stadium on Saturday. Michigan State’s early season schedule remains challenging, with a series at Texas next weekend followed by tournament games in Greenville, South Carolina. Louisville will look to even the series Saturday before hosting Xavier on Tuesday.