JERSEY CITY, N.J. (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of pregame projections, the Saint Peter’s Peacocks erupted for 15 runs on 13 hits to rout the Lafayette Leopards 15-5 on Wednesday afternoon at Joseph J. Jaroschak Field.

The result defied the statistical expectations, which heavily favored Lafayette. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 2-1 Leopards victory, and its ELO system gave Lafayette a 73.10 percent probability to win.

Instead, Saint Peter’s (4-29) secured just its fourth win of the season, while Lafayette fell to 7-26.

The game’s decisive shift came immediately. Lafayette, designated as the visiting team, was held scoreless in the top of the first inning. In the bottom half, Saint Peter’s first baseman Steve Polizzi provided the early knockout blow. After a double by Louis D’Alessio and a single by Joey Dwyer, Polizzi launched a three-run homer to left field off Lafayette starter Pat Walega, instantly erasing any notion of a low-scoring affair and giving the Peacocks a 3-0 lead.

Lafayette responded by manufacturing a pair of unearned runs in the second inning to narrow the gap. Bode Fernsler scored on a throwing error by Saint Peter’s first baseman, and Will Dobil came home on a Ryan Stoddard groundout, making it 3-2.

The Leopards then took a brief lead in the fifth. With two outs and two runners in scoring position, Brandon Doubek delivered a two-run single to shortstop, scoring Teddy Cashman and Alex Barrist to put Lafayette ahead 5-4. It was one of only three hits on the day for the Leopards’ offense.

That advantage was short-lived. The Peacocks reclaimed the lead for good in the bottom of the fifth, capitalizing on Lafayette’s pitching changes and defensive miscues. With the bases loaded and one out, shortstop Allen Ramos laced a two-run single to left field. The ball was misplayed by the left fielder, allowing two additional runs to score on the error. The four-run inning, which made the score 8-5, was a critical momentum swing.

Saint Peter’s broke the game open with a seven-run explosion in the seventh inning, sending 13 batters to the plate. The rally was fueled by timely hitting and patient at-bats. Aidan Forrest doubled and later added a two-run single in the inning. Joey Dwyer contributed a two-run double, Ramos knocked in two more with a single, and Alex Manent drew a bases-loaded walk. Chase Fogg capped the scoring with a sacrifice fly. When the inning finally ended, the Peacocks had turned a 9-5 lead into a 15-5 rout.

Forrest was the offensive standout for Saint Peter’s, going 3 for 5 with a double and driving in three runs. Ramos finished 2 for 4 with four RBIs, while Dwyer went 2 for 5 with two RBIs. Polizzi’s first-inning homer accounted for his three RBIs.

The Peacocks’ bullpen was dominant, combining for 6 1/3 scoreless innings of relief. Alex Angelidis set the tone with two perfect frames in the third and fourth. Logan Wenzel struck out three over 1 1/3 innings, and Davis Gore pitched a perfect seventh.

For Lafayette, Trey Zaffiro provided a bright spot in relief, striking out five and allowing no hits over 2 2/3 innings, though he was charged with three earned runs. Antonio Correa and Ryan Burke also contributed scoreless appearances. The Leopards’ offense, however, mustered only three singles and struggled to build rallies after the fifth inning.

The teams are scheduled to meet again in a rematch at Lafayette on April 29.

Saint Peter’s will open a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference series at home against Iona on Friday. Lafayette begins a Patriot League series against Lehigh at home on Friday.