KENT, Ohio (Interstat) — In a Mid-American Conference upset defying preseason projections and computer models, the Bowling Green Falcons rode a dominant combined pitching effort to a 7-2 victory over the Kent State Golden Flashes on Saturday at Olga Mural Field at Schoonover Stadium.

The Falcons, who entered the game with a 2-7 record and were coming off an 8-1 loss to the same Kent State team just a day earlier, seized control with a five-run third inning and never looked back. The win improved Bowling Green to 3-7 overall, while the Golden Flashes, who were projected by Interstat’s game simulator to win 7-2 and given a 72% probability of victory by its ELO system, fell to 10-4.

The most critical sequence of the game unfolded in the top of the third inning, breaking open a scoreless contest. With one out, Griffin Scheiderer singled and advanced to second on a wild pitch. Zack Horky then drove him home with a single to center field. After a walk and a pickoff, Sam Seidel drove in Horky with a fielder’s choice. Vinny Salvione followed with a triple to right field, scoring Seidel, and Anthony Mitta capped the outburst with a sacrifice fly to plate Salvione. The five-run frame gave the Falcons a commanding lead they would not relinquish.

Bowling Green starter Nate Kress earned the win, working five innings and allowing two earned runs on seven hits while striking out five. The story of the game, however, was the Falcon bullpen, specifically reliever Ethan Stade. Entering the game in the bottom of the sixth inning with a 7-2 lead and two runners on base, Stade extinguished the threat by striking out Hunter Klotz looking and then fanning Grady Mee swinging.

Stade was utterly dominant over his four innings of work to earn the save. He did not allow a hit and struck out 11 of the 15 batters he faced, completely silencing the Kent State offense and securing the victory. This performance marked a strong rebound for Stade, who had allowed three earned runs in his previous outing against Cincinnati on Feb. 25.

Kent State’s offense, which had produced eight runs on Friday, was held in check after the third inning. The Golden Flashes scored both of their runs in the bottom of the third on an RBI single by Kolton Schaller that drove in Micah Rienstra-Kiracofe. Their only other run came in the second inning on an RBI single from Klotz. Schaller finished 2 for 4 with an RBI.

Kent State starter Easton Tumis took the loss, surrendering six earned runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings. The Golden Flashes used four relievers—Peyton Williams, Jordan Kolenda, and Jaden Varner—who combined for 3 2/3 innings of hitless, scoreless relief, striking out six, but the damage was already done.

Bowling Green added an insurance run in the sixth on a sacrifice fly by Horky and another in the eighth when TJ Takats, who went 2 for 4 with an RBI and two runs scored, scored on a passed ball.

Both teams finished with seven hits. For Bowling Green, Salvione’s triple and RBI and Horky’s two RBIs paced the offense alongside the pivotal pitching performances.

The two teams conclude their three-game series on Sunday afternoon in Kent. Bowling Green will look to build on the momentum from this victory as it travels to face Dayton on Tuesday. Kent State will aim to rebound when it hosts Ohio State next Tuesday.