DENVER (Interstat) — In a defensive struggle defined by missed opportunities and critical errors, the New England Patriots eked out a 10-7 victory over the Denver Broncos in an NFL playoff game on Sunday, January 25, 2026, at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park.

A crowd of 76,862 watched as the Patriots, despite being outgained and largely outplayed for long stretches, advanced by capitalizing on a key Denver mistake and leaning on a stubborn defensive effort that held the Broncos to a single, early score. The result defied pregame projections, as Interstat’s game simulator had forecast a Denver win, 30-23, and its ELO system gave the Broncos a 75.2 percent probability of victory. Denver had been installed as a 3.5-point favorite.

The game’s most important sequence came late in the fourth quarter with New England clinging to its three-point lead. Denver, having driven from its own 32-yard line to the New England 36, was threatening to tie or take the lead. On second down with just over two minutes remaining, Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham, under pressure, forced a deep pass down the right sideline intended for Marvin Mims Jr. Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, playing in his hometown of The Colony, Texas, made a leaping interception at the New England 28-yard line, snuffing out Denver’s final genuine scoring threat.

That play encapsulated a frustrating day for the Denver offense, which moved the ball at times but repeatedly stalled. The Broncos struck first, taking a 7-0 lead on their opening drive. Stidham connected with Mims for a 52-yard gain to the New England 7, and two plays later found Courtland Sutton on a 6-yard touchdown pass.

From there, the Patriots’ defense took over. Stidham, who finished 17 of 31 for 133 yards with the one touchdown and one interception, was sacked four times and harassed consistently. The Broncos’ ground game, led by RJ Harvey’s 13 carries for 37 yards, managed only 83 total rushing yards. Denver’s special teams compounded the issues, as kicker Wil Lutz missed a 54-yard field goal attempt wide right at the end of the first half and had a 45-yard attempt blocked in the fourth quarter.

New England’s offense, while far from prolific, did just enough. Quarterback Drake Maye was held to 86 passing yards, completing 10 of 21 attempts, but his mobility proved vital. He rushed for a game-high 65 yards on 10 carries, including a 6-yard touchdown scramble up the middle with 2:10 left in the second quarter to tie the game at 7-7. That capped a short drive set up by a 19-yard sack of Stidham by the Patriots’ Christian Elliss that forced a Denver punt from its own 14-yard line.

The Patriots took the lead for good on their first possession of the second half. A 28-yard scramble by Maye keyed a 15-play, 69-yard drive that consumed over nine minutes of clock. The march stalled inside the Denver 5-yard line, but kicker Andy Borregales converted a 23-yard field goal to make it 10-7 with 5:29 left in the third quarter.

The remainder of the game was a testament to field position and defensive stands. New England’s offense, led by Rhamondre Stevenson’s 71 rushing yards on 25 carries, managed only three first downs after taking the lead. Their strategy became one of conservation, relying on punter Bryce Baringer and the defense to protect the narrow margin.

Denver’s final drives ended with a blocked field goal, a punt, and finally, Gonzalez’s interception. After the pick, New England ran out the final 2:11, with Maye taking three kneel-downs to seal the victory.

The win improved New England’s season record across all competitions to 17-3, sending them to the next round of the playoffs. The Broncos, who entered the game with a 15-3 record, finished their season at 15-4. The combined score of 17 points went well under the over/under line of 43.5, underscoring the defensive nature of the contest. For Denver, linebacker Alex Singleton had a game-high 12 tackles, while Patriots cornerback Carlton Davis III added seven. But it was Gonzalez’s timely interception that proved the definitive play in a game where points were at a premium and every mistake was magnified.