CHARLOTTE, N.C. (Interstat) — In a stunning upset defying pregame projections, the New Orleans Saints capitalized on a stifling defensive performance and two critical touchdown passes from quarterback Tyler Shough to defeat the Carolina Panthers 17-7 on Sunday at a rain-soaked Bank of America Stadium.

A crowd of 72,804 watched as the Saints, who entered the game with a 1-8 record and were given only a 17 percent chance to win by statistical models, held the Panthers to a single, early score. The victory improved New Orleans to 2-8 across all competitions, while Carolina fell to an even 5-5.

The game’s outcome was starkly different from the Interstat simulator’s projection of a 32-24 Panthers victory, and the combined 24 points fell well under the over/under line of 38.5.

Carolina struck first, orchestrating a methodical 13-play, 85-yard drive on the game’s opening possession. The drive was capped by a 5-yard touchdown run from Rico Dowdle, giving the Panthers a 7-0 lead with 7:59 remaining in the first quarter.

New Orleans responded immediately. Facing an early third-and-long after a sack, Shough connected with tight end Juwan Johnson on a 52-yard deep pass that flipped the field. The Saints’ drive stalled inside the 5-yard line, but Blake Grupe converted a 21-yard field goal to cut the deficit to 7-3.

The Saints took the lead for good in the second quarter, courtesy of a spectacular deep strike. Shough found a streaking Chris Olave down the right sideline for a 62-yard touchdown, putting New Orleans ahead 10-7 with 9:21 left in the half.

The Panthers’ offense, which had moved the ball effectively on its first drive, was stymied for the remainder of the contest. Their best opportunity to tie the game came in the third quarter, but a 48-yard field goal attempt by Ryan Fitzgerald was blocked. Carolina’s next promising drive ended when quarterback Bryce Young fumbled a snap, which was recovered by Saints linebacker Pete Werner at the New Orleans 17.

New Orleans sealed the victory early in the fourth quarter. Following an interception by cornerback Alontae Taylor, the Saints drove 57 yards in seven plays. Shough delivered the final blow, finding Johnson again, this time for a 30-yard touchdown pass that extended the lead to 17-7 with 10:20 remaining.

Carolina’s final possessions were thwarted by the Saints’ defense and the game clock, as New Orleans controlled the ball for the majority of the final period, including a 15-play drive that consumed over six minutes.

Shough, the Saints’ quarterback from Chandler, Arizona, finished an efficient 19 of 27 for 282 yards and the two critical touchdowns. His primary targets were Olave, who caught five passes for 104 yards and a score, and Johnson, who hauled in four passes for 92 yards and a touchdown. Running back Alvin Kamara provided a steady ground game, rushing 22 times for 83 yards.

For Carolina, Young of Pasadena, California, struggled against constant pressure, completing 17 of 25 passes for just 124 yards and throwing one interception. The Panthers’ ground game was led by Dowdle of Asheville, North Carolina, who carried 18 times for 53 yards and the team’s lone touchdown.

The Panthers’ defense was led by tackle Derrick Brown of Sugar Hill, Georgia, who recorded nine tackles, and safeties Tre’von Moehrig of Spring Branch, Texas, and Tershawn Wharton of University City, Missouri, who each had seven tackles. However, they managed just two sacks on Shough, from linebackers Nic Scourton of Bryan, Texas, and Trevin Wallace of Jesup, Georgia.

The Saints’ defensive unit was the story of the game, with linebacker Demario Davis of Brandon, Mississippi, leading the way with seven tackles and a key first-quarter interception that halted an early Carolina drive. The secondary, led by Taylor’s interception and five tackles, consistently blanketed the Panthers’ receivers.

The Saints will look to build on the victory when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Nov. 23. The Panthers, meanwhile, will aim to rebound next Sunday when they travel to face the Falcons.