DENVER (Interstat) — The Colorado Rockies, defying pregame projections and recent history, used a pair of early home runs and a dominant start from Tomoyuki Sugano to snap a three-game skid with a 4-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday evening at Coors Field.

A crowd of 29,757 watched as the Rockies, heavy underdogs according to statistical models, took control immediately and never relinquished it, salvaging the final game of a three-game series after being outscored 13-2 in the first two contests.

The most important part of the game unfolded swiftly in the bottom of the first inning. After Taijuan Walker retired the first two Colorado batters, Mickey Moniak stepped in and launched a solo home run to right field, erasing an early Philadelphia run and tying the game. The rally did not stop there. Hunter Goodman followed with a single, setting the stage for designated hitter TJ Rumfield. Rumfield connected on a line drive that also cleared the right-field wall, a two-run shot that suddenly gave the Rockies a 3-1 lead before many fans had settled into their seats. That three-run, two-out outburst set the tone for the entire contest, providing Sugano with all the support he would need.

Sugano, making his second start for Colorado, was masterful in neutralizing a Phillies lineup that had been potent in the series’ first two games. The right-hander worked six strong innings, allowing just one run on four hits. He walked one and struck out five, efficiently navigating through a Philadelphia order that managed only a handful of threats. His performance improved upon his season debut in Toronto and provided stability for a Rockies team desperate for a quality start.

The only damage against Sugano came in the top of the second inning when Adolis García answered Moniak’s homer with one of his own, a solo blast to right-center that briefly made the score 1-1 before Colorado’s first-inning explosion. Philadelphia’s best chance to climb back into the game came in the fifth. With two outs, Justin Crawford singled and Trea Turner doubled, putting runners on second and third. Sugano escaped by getting Kyle Schwarber to fly out sharply to center field, preserving the 3-1 lead.

Colorado added an insurance run in the bottom of the fifth, again via the long ball. Moniak struck for his second homer of the game, taking Walker deep to right-center for a solo shot that extended the lead to 4-1. Walker took the loss for Philadelphia, falling to 0-2 after completing five innings and allowing all four Colorado runs on seven hits. He struck out four and walked one.

The Rockies’ bullpen, which has struggled early this season, sealed the win with three perfect innings of relief. Brennan Bernardino struck out two in a scoreless seventh. In the ninth, with the heart of the Phillies order due up, closer Victor Vodnik was summoned. He allowed back-to-back one-out singles to Alec Bohm and García but responded emphatically, striking out Brandon Marsh on a foul tip and then fanning Rafael Marchán swinging to end the game, earning his first save of the season.

Philadelphia’s offense, which entered the game averaging over five runs per contest, was held to just six hits total and went 0 for 3 with runners in scoring position. After Turner’s fifth-inning double, the Phillies did not advance another runner past first base. Their bullpen trio of Tanner Banks, Kyle Backhus and Tim Mayza combined for three hitless innings of relief, but the early deficit proved too large to overcome.

The victory improved Colorado’s record to 3-6, while the Phillies fell to 5-4. The outcome was a stark contrast to the pregame expectations; Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 6-3 Philadelphia win, and its ELO system gave the Phillies a 75.1% probability of victory. The combined five total runs also fell dramatically under the over/under line of 11.

Colorado now prepares to open a three-game series at home against the Houston Astros on Monday. The Phillies continue their road trip, heading to San Francisco to begin a three-game set with the Giants, also on Monday.