ST. LOUIS (Interstat) — In a tense pitchers’ duel that defied pregame projections, the St. Louis Cardinals edged the New York Mets 2-1 in 11 innings on a walk-off single by Masyn Winn on Wednesday afternoon at Busch Stadium.

The game, witnessed by 21,684 fans, was a stark contrast to the offensive output predicted by Interstat’s game simulator, which had forecast a 6-3 Mets victory. The combined three runs fell well under the over/under line of 8, as both starting pitchers delivered standout performances.

The Mets’ Freddy Peralta and the Cardinals’ Matthew Liberatore set the tone, each allowing just one run over their outings. Peralta struck out seven and surrendered three hits in 5 1/3 innings. Liberatore, named the top star for St. Louis, matched him with six strong innings, giving up three hits and one unearned run while fanning two.

The game’s first run came via a costly mistake. In the top of the sixth, Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor reached on a fielding error by Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman. The next batter, Juan Soto, made St. Louis pay, launching Liberatore’s offering for a solo home run to right field to give New York a 1-0 lead.

The Cardinals answered immediately in the bottom half. JJ Wetherholt led off with a single and advanced to second on a walk to Iván Herrera. After two outs, Gorman atoned for his earlier error, lining a sharp single to center off Peralta to score Wetherholt and knot the game at 1-1.

From there, the bullpens took over, engaging in a high-wire act through extra innings. The Mets’ Brooks Raley struck out two in a perfect seventh. The Cardinals’ JoJo Romero retired all four batters he faced. New York’s Devin Williams and Luke Weaver each tossed scoreless frames, while St. Louis’s Justin Bruihl worked a clean tenth.

The Mets squandered a prime chance in the top of the 11th. With the automatic runner, Juan Soto, starting at second base, they loaded the bases with one out against reliever Gordon Graceffo. But Brett Baty grounded into a fielder’s choice force at home, and Marcus Semien flew out to right field to end the threat.

In the bottom of the 11th, Wetherholt began the inning as the automatic runner at second base. Mets reliever Tobias Myers intentionally walked Herrera. Alec Burleson then grounded into a 4-6-3 double play, moving Wetherholt to third with two outs. Winn stepped in and, on a 1-2 count from Myers, popped a soft, looping single into shallow right-center field. The ball dropped just beyond the reach of a backtracking Semien at second base, allowing Wetherholt to score easily and sending the Cardinals to a dramatic victory.

The most important sequence of the game was that final half-inning. After the Mets failed to score with the bases loaded in the top of the frame, the Cardinals executed under pressure. The double play erased the lead runner but advanced the winning run to third, setting the stage for Winn’s clutch, two-out hit against a drawn-in infield.

Graceffo earned the win, recording two outs in the 11th to move to 1-0. Myers took the loss, falling to 0-1 after allowing the unearned, game-deciding run.

The victory gave the Cardinals the series win, taking two of three from the Mets to improve their record to 4-2. New York fell to .500 at 3-3.

Both teams finished with five hits. The game time was 3 hours, 11 minutes.

The Mets now travel to San Francisco to open a four-game series with the Giants on Thursday. The Cardinals have an off-day Thursday before beginning a three-game interleague set in Detroit against the Tigers on Friday.