TORONTO (Interstat) — The Toronto Blue Jays, holding a five-game lead over the Boston Red Sox in the standings, open a critical three-game series against their American League East rivals on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays (90-66) enter the final week of the regular season in strong position after winning eight of their last 12, including an 8-5 victory over Kansas City on Sunday where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove in two runs. The Red Sox (85-71), meanwhile, are looking to rebound after a 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay that dropped them to 4-6 in their last 10 games.

This series has been a back-and-forth affair this season. The teams split a four-game set in Boston in late June that featured a dramatic 15-1 Red Sox win bookended by 9-0 and 5-3 victories for the Blue Jays. Toronto holds a slim 6-4 advantage in the season series.

Statistical models favor the home team. Interstat’s game simulator projects a 6-4 Toronto victory, while its ELO system gives the Blue Jays a 54.2% probability to win. The betting markets also lean toward Toronto, installed as a -1.5 favorite with an over/under of 8 runs.

The series could prove decisive for Boston’s playoff hopes, as they trail Toronto by five games with just six remaining. Following this set, both teams will host their final series of the year, with Boston welcoming Detroit and Toronto facing Tampa Bay.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT.