TOGLIATTI, Russia (Interstat) — Brendan Leipsic scored the decisive goal in a shootout Monday afternoon, lifting SKA Saint Petersburg to a 4-3 victory over Lada Togliatti in a Kontinental Hockey League game that saw the home side erase a two-goal deficit in the third period.

The win at Lada Arena improved SKA’s record to 19-15-1, while Lada fell to 12-32-0. The outcome defied the projections of Interstat’s game simulator, which had forecast a 3-1 SKA victory, and its ELO system, which gave SKA a 73% probability to win.

SKA, the visiting team, built its lead on first-period goals from Marat Khairullin and Matvei Polyakov. Khairullin opened the scoring at 9:47 of the first, assisted by Mikhail Vorobyov. Polyakov, who finished with a goal, three shots on goal and two penalty minutes, extended the lead to 2-0 at 13:30, with Nikita Dishkovsky earning the assist.

Lada’s comeback began in the second period. Tomas Jurco put the home side on the board at 23:51, converting passes from Artur Tyanulin and Riley Sawchuk. Just over a minute and a half later, at 25:38, Nikita Setdikov netted his second of the season, assisted by Andrei Altybarmakyan, to tie the game at 2-2.

SKA regained the lead early in the third period when Nikita Nedopyokin scored his first goal of the season at 49:19. The goal was assisted by Yegor Savikov and goaltender Sergei Vl. Ivanov. Lada answered quickly, however, as Altybarmakyan scored at 51:21 to knot the game at 3-3, with Sawchuk and Tyanulin picking up their second assists of the night.

Neither team could break the deadlock through the remainder of regulation or the five-minute overtime period, forcing a shootout. Leipsic’s successful attempt secured the extra point for SKA.

In goal, Ivan Bocharov made 30 saves on 33 shots for Lada to earn the win in the official statistics, as the shootout loss is credited to the goaltender of record. Sergei Vl. Ivanov stopped 23 of 26 shots for SKA.

The game was a tight-checking affair with only one penalty, a minor called against Lada’s Andrei Chivilev in the first period.

The victory continues a positive trend for SKA against Lada this season, following a 5-4 overtime win in Saint Petersburg just five days earlier on Jan. 7. SKA next travels to face Red Star Kunlun on Wednesday. Lada looks to rebound at home against Salavat Yulaev Ufa on Thursday.