TOCOA, Honduras (Interstat) — A critical late-season clash in the Honduran Liga Nacional sees a surging Victoria side favored on the road against Real Sociedad on Saturday at Estadio Francisco Martínez Durón.

The Week 15 matchup pits a visiting Victoria squad (7-2-5) riding a wave of offensive momentum against a Real Sociedad team looking to shake off a long layoff. The hosts have not played a competitive match since a 1-0 loss at Juticalpa on May 3.

Victoria arrives with a mixed bag of recent results but potent scoring form. After a 3-0 defeat at league power Olimpia on Dec. 6, they had previously strung together three consecutive victories, including a 4-1 rout of Atletico Choloma on Dec. 2 and a dramatic 4-3 win at Juticalpa on Nov. 26. Their attack has produced 11 goals in their last four outings.

Statistical models heavily favor the visitors. Interstat’s game simulator projects a narrow 1-0 victory for Victoria, while its ELO rating system gives them a 55.2% probability of winning.

Real Sociedad will aim to leverage home pitch advantage to disrupt Victoria’s rhythm and find its footing after the extended hiatus. The condensed schedule offers little respite for either side, with Victoria set to visit Vida on Dec. 26 and Real Sociedad traveling to face Motagua on Dec. 27.

Saturday’s contest is pivotal for positioning as the league enters its final stretch. Victoria will seek to validate their statistical favoritism with three points on the road, while Real Sociedad aims to play spoiler and launch their own late campaign surge.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. local time Saturday.