CARPI, Italy (Interstat) — FC Forli opened its Serie C campaign with a 1-0 road victory over AC Carpi on Saturday, defying pregame projections. Michele Trombetta scored the match’s lone goal in the 19th minute at Stadio Sandro Cabassi.

The result was an upset, as statistical models heavily favored the home side. Interstat gave AC Carpi a 67.1% probability to win and had projected a 1-1 draw.

The win gives Forli a perfect start in league play at 1-0-0, while Carpi begins its season 0-1-0. Both clubs see their overall records mirror those league marks. The match was part of the opening Saturday of the Italian Serie C season.