ALVERCA DO RIBATEJO, Portugal (Interstat) — In a season-opening upset that defied pregame projections, Alverca delivered a commanding 3-1 victory over Casa Pia in Primeira Liga football on Sunday, April 12, 2026, at Campo Futebol Clube Alverca.

The result stood in stark contrast to statistical forecasts. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, while its ELO rating system gave visiting Casa Pia a 59.4 percent probability of securing a win. Instead, Alverca seized control early and never relented, handing Casa Pia a defeat to begin its league campaign.

The match took a surprising turn almost immediately. Against the run of early play, Casa Pia’s substitute João Marques broke through in the first minute, scoring to give the visitors a shock 1-0 lead. The early goal, however, failed to destabilize the home side, which grew into the match as the first half progressed.

Alverca found its equalizer before halftime. In the 49th minute, forward Figueiredo netted the leveling goal, shifting momentum firmly in favor of the home squad as the teams headed to the break.

The second half belonged entirely to Alverca. The home side took the lead for good in the 63rd minute when forward Chiquinho found the back of the net, capitalizing on sustained pressure to make it 2-1. Alverca then put the match beyond doubt in the 83rd minute. Midfielder Rhaldney completed the scoring with a goal, cementing the 3-1 final score and initiating celebrations among the home supporters.

The victory marks a perfect start for Alverca in Primeira Liga play, beginning its season with one win and no losses. For Casa Pia, the loss opens its league schedule with a record of no wins and one loss. The records across all competitions for both clubs mirror their league starts following this contest.

The match showcased a resilient performance from Alverca, which responded to an early deficit with three unanswered goals. Key attacking contributions from Figueiredo, Chiquinho and Rhaldney provided the firepower necessary to overcome Casa Pia’s initial advantage and secure the three points.