LISBOA (Interstat) — Arsenal FC opened its Champions League campaign with a dramatic 1-0 victory over Sporting CP on Tuesday at Estádio José Alvalade. Substitute Kai Havertz scored the game’s only goal in the first minute of second-half stoppage time.

The late winner came after a tightly contested match that defied pregame projections. Interstat’s game simulator had predicted a 3-0 Arsenal win, while its ELO system gave the home side a 52.3 percent probability of victory.

Hidemasa Morita, who received a yellow card in the 31st minute, provided the assist on Havertz’s decisive goal. The result gives Arsenal a win to start its European season, while Sporting begins with a loss.