BERLIN (Interstat) — In a Bundesliga season opener that defied pregame projections of a home-side victory, Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli played to a 1-1 draw on Sunday at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.

The match, played on April 5, 2026, saw the visiting St. Pauli strike first before Union Berlin responded, with both goals coming in the first half. The result left both clubs with identical records to start their league campaigns: 0 wins, 0 losses and 1 draw. Their overall records across all competitions this season also mirror that mark.

St. Pauli, which entered the match with a win probability of just over 35 percent according to Interstat’s ELO system, silenced the home crowd in the 25th minute. Substitute Mathias Pereira, who had entered the match earlier, provided the breakthrough for the visitors with a well-taken goal. The early strike gave the promoted side a valuable advantage on the road.

Union Berlin, which had been projected with a 64.90 percent chance to win, found its answer before halftime. In the 52nd minute, forward Andrej Ilić leveled the score, capitalizing on a buildup to ensure the teams went into the break on equal footing. Ilić’s finish provided a crucial response for the home side.

The second half failed to produce a winning goal, though it did not lack for drama. St. Pauli’s Jackson Irvine, also a substitute, was shown a yellow card in the 85th minute for a foul. His involvement turned more consequential deep into stoppage time. In the third minute of added time, Irvine received a second booking, resulting in a red card and reducing St. Pauli to 10 men for the final moments. The dismissal came too late for Union Berlin to mount a numerical advantage into a winning goal.

The final whistle confirmed the 1-1 scoreline, a result that aligned exactly with the final score projection from Interstat’s game simulator, though the path to that result—with St. Pauli leading early and finishing a man down—provided unexpected twists. The shared points reflect a tightly contested match between a club with established Bundesliga footing and a newly promoted side demonstrating immediate resilience.

For Union Berlin, the draw represents a missed opportunity to capitalize on home advantage against a team many metrics favored them to beat. For St. Pauli, securing a point on the road in their first top-flight match of the season, despite the late red card, will be viewed as a positive foundation upon which to build. Both teams will look for their first victory of the young season when Bundesliga play continues next weekend.