TOULOUSE, France (Interstat) — Marseille opened its Ligue 1 season with a narrow 1-0 victory over Toulouse on Saturday, March 7, 2026, defying pregame projections in a match decided by an early goal and defined by a flurry of second-half cautions.

Playing before a home crowd at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse entered the match as a significant favorite according to statistical models. Interstat’s ELO system gave the hosts a 70.80 percent probability to win, while its game simulator projected a 1-1 draw. Marseille, however, delivered a disciplined defensive performance to secure all three points.

The game’s only goal arrived in the 18th minute, a product of Marseille’s effective use of substitutions. The sequence began with defender Mark McKenzie, who provided the assist on the play. His pass found forward Mason Greenwood, who had entered the match as a substitute. Greenwood finished the chance to give the visiting side an early advantage it would not relinquish.

The match grew increasingly tense after halftime, with five yellow cards issued in a six-minute span. Toulouse’s Facundo Medina, also a substitute, was booked in the 59th minute, immediately followed by a pair of cautions to Marseille players Aron Dønnum and the goal-scorer Greenwood in the same minute. Marseille substitute Tim Weah received a yellow card in the 60th minute, and Marseille’s Mark McKenzie was booked in the 64th minute. Medina and Dønnum were credited with assists on the game’s decisive goal.

Marseille’s defense held firm against Toulouse’s attempts to find an equalizer, organizing effectively to protect its slim lead. The result handed Marseille a winning start to its domestic campaign, moving its Ligue 1 record to one win and no losses. Toulouse, meanwhile, begins its season with a defeat, standing at no wins and one loss.

The victory also gives Marseille a perfect record across all competitions this season at one win and no losses, while Toulouse sits at no wins and one loss in all matches. The early-season encounter provided an upset based on statistical forecasts, with Marseille’s clinical finishing and resolute back-line performance proving the difference.