NARNI, Italy (Interstat) — In a stunning upset that defied statistical projections, last-place Ternana Femminile defeated Lazio W 1-0 on Sunday in a Serie A Women’s match marked by a dramatic late goal and a flurry of disciplinary action.

The match, played at Stadio Moreno Gubbioti, was decided in the final minute of regulation when Ternana midfielder Giada Cimò scored the game’s lone goal. The strike came against the run of pregame expectations, as analytics firm Interstat had given Lazio an 89.2 percent probability to win and projected a 2-1 victory for the visitors.

The goal was assisted by defender Eleonora Pacioni, one of seven different Ternana players credited with an assist on the play in a unique statistical outcome. Also recording assists were Heden Corrado, Laura Peruzzo, and substitutes Megan Connolly, Alice Benoit, Margherita Monnecchi, Elisabetta Oliviero and Antonietta Castiello.

The result shakes up the league standings, improving Ternana’s season record to two wins, seven losses and one draw. Lazio’s record fell to five wins and four losses. Both teams’ records across all competitions are identical to their Serie A Women’s marks.

The match was a physical and contentious affair from the start. Ternana’s Monnecchi received a yellow card in the eighth minute, setting a tone that would see eight total cautions issued. Lazio’s Corrado was booked in the 20th minute, and Benoit was shown a yellow in first-half stoppage time.

The second half saw the card count rise, with Connolly (55th minute), Pacioni (79th) and Peruzzo (87th) all booked for Ternana. The drama peaked after Cimò’s 90th-minute goal. In the extended stoppage time, Ternana’s Oliviero and Castiello received yellow cards in the 90+8 and 90+16 minutes, respectively.

The most severe punishment came in the 90+11 minute when Lazio’s Nikola Karczewska was shown a straight red card, reducing her side to 10 players as they futilely sought an equalizer.

The victory provides a massive boost for Ternana, which had struggled this season. Its only prior league win came against US Sassuolo Calcio on Nov. 15, and it had been shut out in its two previous matches entering Sunday. Lazio, meanwhile, saw a two-game winning streak snapped. It had defeated Parma Calcio 1913 and US Sassuolo Calcio in its prior two league contests.

Looking ahead, Lazio will aim to rebound quickly as it hosts Fiorentina W next Saturday. Its subsequent Serie A Women’s fixtures are at Juventus W on Feb. 15 and at home against AC Milan on Feb. 21. Ternana Femminile, buoyed by this unexpected result, does not play again in league competition until Sunday, Feb. 22, when it will host powerhouse Juventus W.