BIRMINGHAM, England (Interstat) — Sandro Tonali came off the bench to score a second-half brace, powering Newcastle United to a 3-1 upset victory over Aston Villa in the FA Cup fifth round on Saturday at Villa Park.

The result, played on Feb. 14, 2026, defied pre-match projections that heavily favored the home side. Statistical models gave Aston Villa a 73.9% probability to advance and had forecast a 1-1 draw, but Newcastle’s clinical finishing and a pivotal red card changed the trajectory of the match.

Aston Villa started brightly and took an early lead in the 14th minute. Forward Tammy Abraham found the net, capitalizing on service from midfielder Douglas Luiz, who was credited with the assist. The early goal seemed to validate Villa’s favored status.

The match’s complexion began to shift, however, amid a flurry of first-half cautions. Five yellow cards were issued before the break, with Villa’s Luiz and defender Lucas Digne and Newcastle substitutes Malick Thiaw, Harvey Barnes and Jacob Ramsey all booked. The most significant disciplinary action came in first-half stoppage time, when Villa goalkeeper Marco Bizot was shown a red card in the 45+1 minute, forcing the hosts to play a man down for the entire second half.

Newcastle manager Eddie Howe made strategic use of his bench to exploit the advantage. Introduced as a substitute, midfielder Sandro Tonali made an immediate impact. He leveled the score in the 63rd minute, finishing an assist from fellow substitute Malick Thiaw.

Tonali then completed his double 13 minutes later, putting Newcastle ahead for good in the 76th minute. This goal was set up by another substitute, Harvey Barnes. The two goals from Tonali, who had not started the match, proved to be the decisive performance of the afternoon.

Newcastle sealed the victory in the 88th minute through striker Nick Woltemade. His insurance goal was assisted by substitute Jacob Ramsey, marking the fourth assist of the game from a player who began the match on the bench.

The defeat marks a disappointing start to Aston Villa’s campaign in this season’s FA Cup, giving them a record of 0 wins and 1 loss in the competition. Their overall season record across all tournaments also stands at 0-1. Newcastle United, meanwhile, advances in the FA Cup with a perfect 1-0 record in the tournament and a 1-0 mark overall for the season.

The match was officiated under the auspices of England’s Football Association, which organizes the FA Cup. Newcastle will await the draw for the quarterfinal round.