1-0-0 · W1 · - (1924 ELO +36)

1-0-1 · L1 · - (1995 ELO -36)

Villa Park · Birmingham

Officials: Chris Kavanagh

Aston Villa vs Newcastle Utd

BIRMINGHAM, England (Interstat) — Sandro Tonali came off the bench to score a second-half brace, powering Newcastle United to a 3-1 upset victory over Aston Villa in the FA Cup fifth round on Saturday at Villa Park. The result, played on Feb. 14, 2026, defied pre-match projections that heavily favored the home side. Statistical models gave Aston Villa a 73.9% probability to advance and had forecast a 1-1 draw, but Newcastle’s clinical finishing and a pivotal red card changed the trajectory of the match. Aston Villa started brightly and took an early lead in the 14th minute. Forward Tammy Abraham… Read more...


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Forecasting

ELO Probability ENG-ASTO 85.7%
Projected Score ENG-ASTO 1 ENG-NEWC 1

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