BILBAO, Spain (Interstat) — In a fiercely contested Basque derby that defied pregame projections, Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad played to a 1-1 draw in La Liga action at San Mamés on Sunday.

The match, a hallmark fixture of Spanish football known for its intensity, lived up to its billing with a dramatic late equalizer, multiple bookings and a pivotal red card. The result left both teams with identical records to open their league campaigns.

The game’s narrative was heavily influenced by substitutes. Real Sociedad’s Gonçalo Guedes, entering the match from the bench, broke a tense deadlock in the 37th minute. His opening goal gave the visitors a lead they would protect for most of the match, seemingly on track for a victory that statistical models heavily favored.

The dynamics of the contest shifted decisively in the 83rd minute when Real Sociedad’s Brais Méndez was shown a red card, forcing his side to play a man down for the final stretch. Athletic Bilbao, urged on by a raucous home crowd, pressed for a late reprieve.

The pressure told in the 88th minute. Another substitute, Athletic’ Ruiz de Galarreta, found the net to secure a dramatic share of the points for the hosts. The buildup to the equalizer involved defender Aitor Paredes, who was credited with an assist.

The match was a physical affair from the outset, reflected in a total of six yellow cards issued by the officiating crew. Real Sociedad’s Igor Zubeldía received the first booking in the 23rd minute, setting a combative tone. Teammate Jon Martin was also cautioned in the second half. For Athletic, defender Yuri Berchiche, forward Urko Izeta and defender Jesús Areso were all shown yellow cards, with Paredes booked shortly before the equalizing goal.

The final result stood in stark contrast to pregame analytics. While Interstat’s game simulator accurately projected the 1-1 scoreline, its ELO system had given Real Sociedad an 87.3 percent probability of securing a win. Athletic Bilbao’s resilient performance, particularly after going a goal down, ensured the derby spoils were split.

With the draw, both clubs opened their La Liga seasons with a point. The result also maintained their identical records across all competitions for the young campaign.