ALMELO, Netherlands (Interstat) — Substitute Clint Leemans scored a second-half goal to deliver a 1-0 victory for NAC Breda over Heracles in an Eredivisie match Saturday at Erve Asito. The result defied pregame projections that heavily favored the home side.

Leemans converted in the 56th minute, finishing a play set up by fellow substitutes Lewis Holtby and Denis Odoi. Both Odoi and Holtby received yellow cards shortly before the decisive sequence. The goal stood as the game-winner.

The loss marked a disappointing start for Heracles in league play, while NAC Breda opened its Eredivisie campaign with a clean-sheet victory. Interstat’s pregame model had given Heracles an 88.9% probability to win and projected a 2-1 scoreline in its favor.