GUINGAMP, France (Interstat) — In a surprising Ligue 2 result that defied pre-match projections, the reserve side of Saint-Etienne secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Guingamp on Saturday, February 14, 2026, at Stade du Roudourou.

The visitors, Saint-Etienne II, entered the match as significant underdogs according to statistical models but delivered a disciplined performance to claim all three points and open their league campaign with a win. Interstat’s ELO rating system had given Guingamp a 78.80 percent probability of victory, while its game simulator had predicted a 1-1 draw. The actual outcome upended those forecasts and handed Guingamp a losing start to its season.

Saint-Etienne II established control early. In the 14th minute, substitute Zuriko Davitashvili opened the scoring, capitalizing on a defensive lapse to put the visitors ahead. The goal set the tone for a first half where the young Saint-Etienne side absorbed pressure and looked dangerous on the counter.

Guingamp, playing in front of its home supporters, struggled to find a consistent rhythm. The match grew increasingly physical, with Saint-Etienne II’s Louis Mafouta receiving the first yellow card in the 25th minute for a tactical foul. Guingamp’s best chance of the first half came just before the break, but the teams went into halftime with the visitors holding a narrow 1-0 lead.

The second half saw Guingamp increase its urgency, but Saint-Etienne II doubled its advantage on the hour mark. Defender Donatien Gomis found the net in the 60th minute, with the assist credited to Alpha Sissoko, to give the visitors a commanding 2-0 lead. Sissoko was later booked in the 54th minute, part of a concerted defensive effort from the back line.

Facing a two-goal deficit, Guingamp finally sparked to life. The home side pulled a goal back in the 73rd minute through defender Donatien Gomis, who headed in a service from fellow substitute Irvin Cardona. Cardona had entered the match earlier and was shown a yellow card in the 73rd minute, just moments before contributing to the goal that brought Guingamp within striking distance.

The final 20 minutes were a frantic affair, with Guingamp pouring forward in search of an equalizer. Saint-Etienne II’s defense, however, held firm under sustained pressure, organized and resilient in protecting its lead. Despite several late set-pieces and waves of attack from the hosts, the visitors managed the game effectively to see out the remaining minutes.

The final whistle confirmed a 2-1 victory for Saint-Etienne II, a result that immediately alters the early landscape of the French second division. The win gives Saint-Etienne II a perfect start to its Ligue 2 season, now standing at one win and no losses. For Guingamp, the defeat marks a disappointing opening at home, beginning its campaign with one loss and no wins.

Key to the outcome was the impact of Saint-Etienne II’s substitutes, particularly Zuriko Davitashvili, whose early goal set the tactical blueprint for the match. The defensive organization, led by goalscorer Donatien Gomis and assisted by Alpha Sissoko, proved sufficient to withstand Guingamp’s late rally, anchored by the contributions of Louis Mafouta and Irvin Cardona in the attacking phases.

The match served as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of league football, where pre-game probabilities and projections can be overturned by determined execution on the pitch. Saint-Etienne II will look to build on this momentum in its next fixture, while Guingamp is left to regroup after a opening-day setback at home.