KOCAELI, Turkiye (Interstat) — Substitute Ernest Muçi scored a dramatic stoppage-time winner to propel Trabzonspor to a 2-1 comeback victory over Kocaelispor in a Süper Lig match Sunday, defying pregame statistical projections in the season opener for both clubs.

The match, played before a capacity crowd at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, unfolded in stark contrast to expectations. Data firm Interstat’s ELO system had given the home side, Kocaelispor, a 60.40 percent probability of victory. However, it was the visiting Black Sea Storm that ultimately validated the firm’s separate scoreline projection of a 2-1 Trabzonspor win with a resilient second-half performance.

Kocaelispor seized the early initiative, taking a deserved lead in the 18th minute. Defender Tayfur Bingöl provided the service from the left flank, picking out striker Bruno Petković in the center of the penalty area. The experienced forward made no mistake, directing a powerful header past the Trabzonspor goalkeeper to send the home supporters into a frenzy.

Trabzonspor struggled to find a consistent response in the first half, but the complexion of the game shifted after the interval. Manager Abdullah Avcı’s substitutions proved decisive. Introduced in the 66th minute, Muçi injected immediate pace and directness into the Trabzonspor attack. His impact was felt in the 74th minute when he was fouled by Kocaelispor’s Mustafa Eskihellaç, who received a yellow card for the challenge.

The equalizer arrived just three minutes later. Following a sustained period of pressure, Muçi was again involved, driving to the byline before cutting back a precise pass to the edge of the six-yard box. There, fellow substitute Felipe Augusto arrived to smash the ball home, silencing the home crowd in the 77th minute.

The goal ignited a fractious period, with Muçi earning a yellow card moments after the restart. As the match entered seven minutes of added time, it appeared headed for a share of the points. Muçi, however, had other ideas. In the first minute of stoppage time, he found space just inside the penalty area and unleashed a low, driven shot that nestled inside the far post, completing the turnaround and sending the traveling supporters into delirium.

Kocaelispor’s frustrations boiled over in the dying moments, resulting in a yellow card for goal provider Tayfur Bingöl in the 90+5th minute, but they could not muster another clear chance.

The result gives Trabzonspor a winning start to the Süper Lig campaign, their record now at 1-0. Kocaelispor, promoted to the top flight this season, begins its campaign with a hard-fought but disappointing 0-1 record. Both teams’ records across all competitions mirror their league starts. The match underscored the unpredictable nature of the Turkish top flight, where pregame analytics were overturned by a moment of individual brilliance from a super-sub.