MAZATLÁN, Mexico (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of pregame projections, Mazatlán FC opened its Liga MX season with a dramatic 4-3 victory over Toluca on Wednesday night at Estadio El Encanto, overcoming significant statistical odds to secure three points.

The match, played on April 22, 2026, defied the forecasts of Interstat, whose game simulator had predicted a 2-1 win for Toluca and whose ELO rating system gave the visiting Diablos Rojos an 83 percent probability of victory. Instead, the home side delivered a seven-goal thriller marked by pivotal contributions from substitutes.

Mazatlán’s comeback began just before halftime. After a fractious opening period that saw four yellow cards, including one to Toluca’s Alexis Vega in the 12th minute and Mazatlán’s Everardo López in the 26th, the deadlock was broken in first-half stoppage time. López, who had entered the match as a substitute, found the net in the 45+5th minute to give Mazatlán a 1-0 lead heading into the break.

That advantage was short-lived. Toluca’s Brian Rubio equalized just four minutes after the restart in the 49th minute, setting the stage for a frantic second half. Toluca then seized momentum when substitute Antonio Briseño scored in the 54th minute, putting the visitors ahead 2-1.

The game’s complexion shifted decisively six minutes later. In the 60th minute, Toluca’s Marcel Ruíz was shown a straight red card, forcing his team to play a man down for the final half-hour. Mazatlán capitalized on the numerical advantage quickly. Gabriel López leveled the score at 2-2 in the 75th minute, finishing a play that involved an assist from Everardo López, completing a goal-and-assist performance for the Mazatlán substitute.

Gabriel López then turned provider, assisting on what became the winning goal. His work set up teammate Nicolás Castro, another substitute, who scored in the 87th minute to put Mazatlán ahead 3-2. The home side appeared to seal the victory just one minute later when defender Jesús Hernández scored in the 88th minute, extending the lead to 4-2.

Toluca displayed resilience despite being a man down, pulling a goal back almost immediately. Defender Jesús Hernández found his own net for an own goal in the 89th minute, tightening the score to 4-3 and setting up a tense finale. The match concluded with a flurry of cards, including a yellow to Mazatlán’s Gabriel López in the 90+5th minute, but Mazatlán held on through eight minutes of stoppage time to claim the win.

The victory gives Mazatlán a perfect start to the Liga MX campaign, moving its season record to 1 win and 0 losses, while Toluca begins its season at 0 wins and 1 loss. The identical records apply across all competitions for both clubs. Key performances beyond the goal scorers included assists from Toluca’s Jair Díaz and Lucas Merolla, and Mazatlán’ Alexis Vega.

The result serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictability of football, as Mazatlán overcame one of the highest pregame win probabilities assigned to an opponent in recent Liga MX memory to start its season with a statement victory at a raucous Estadio El Encanto.