MANAMA, Bahrain (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of pregame projections, Budaiya defeated Al Ahli 3-2 on Thursday afternoon in a Bahrain Premier League match at Madinat ’Isa Stadium, overcoming heavy statistical odds to claim a crucial road victory.

The game, played Jan. 8, 2026, defied the forecasts of Interstat, whose game simulator had projected a 2-1 win for Al Ahli and whose ELO system gave the home side an 81.7 percent probability of victory.

Budaiya set the tone early, silencing the home supporters with a goal in just the fifth minute. Abdulla Al Hashash found the net to give the visitors an immediate advantage. Al Ahli responded in the 18th minute, with Fabrice Onana equalizing to level the match at 1-1, a score that held until halftime.

The second half saw a flurry of activity that ultimately decided the contest. Budaiya reclaimed the lead in the 64th minute through a goal from Abdoolraheem Sadiku. Ten minutes later, Adriano extended Budaiya’s advantage to 3-1, seemingly putting the game out of reach.

Al Ahli mounted a late push, with Daniel Asante scoring in the 77th minute to cut the deficit to a single goal. Despite increased pressure from the home side in the final minutes, Budaiya’s defense held firm to secure the three points.

The result provides a significant boost to Budaiya’s league campaign, improving its record in the competition to three wins, five losses and three draws. The team’s overall record across all competitions is identical. For Al Ahli, the loss is a damaging setback, dropping its Premier League and overall record to three wins and six losses.

The match continued a recent trend for both clubs. Budaiya snapped a two-game losing skid in the league, having suffered 1-0 defeats to A’ali CSC and Muharraq in its previous two outings. Al Ahli, meanwhile, failed to build on the momentum of a 3-3 draw with Al Hidd in its last match and has now lost four of its last five Premier League fixtures.

Looking ahead, Budaiya’s next assignment is a league match at Manama on Sunday, Jan. 25. Al Ahli faces a quick turnaround, hosting rival Muharraq on Thursday, Jan. 15, before traveling to face Al Hala on Monday, Jan. 26.