QUITO, Ecuador (Interstat) — A crucial Liga Pro matchup with significant implications for the final phase of the season will see LDU Quito visit CA Libertad on Sunday.

The clash at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado is a rematch of recent encounters that have largely favored the visitors. LDU Quito has won the last two head-to-head meetings, including a 3-1 victory at home on Nov. 8 and a 1-0 win in Quito on Sept. 12. Their only recent stumble against Libertad was a 1-1 draw on May 20.

Current form, however, presents a more complex picture. LDU Quito (8-4-5) enters following a surprising 2-1 road loss to Orense on Dec. 6, which snapped a positive run that included a 3-1 win over this same Libertad side. Their season has featured strong victories, including a 2-0 win over Brazil’s Sao Paulo in continental play, but also inconsistent league results.

CA Libertad (3-9-5) seeks to break a winless streak and reverse recent history against its rival. The home side is coming off a 1-1 draw at Independiente del Valle on Dec. 6 and has not secured a victory in its last five matches across all competitions. Its last win was a 3-2 triumph at Aucas on Aug. 22. Libertad’s season has been defined by draws, with nine in 17 matches.

Statistical models heavily favor LDU Quito. Interstat’s game simulator projects a 2-1 victory for the visitors, and its ELO rating system gives LDU Quito a 72.6% probability of winning.

A win for LDU Quito would solidify its position near the top of the table as the season nears its climax. For Libertad, securing three points is vital to improve its standing and keep its final phase aspirations alive.

LDU Quito will quickly turn its attention to a Copa Ecuador semifinal against Universidad Catolica on Dec. 18. Libertad’s next fixture is yet to be announced in the upcoming schedule.