ZAGREB, Croatia (Interstat) — First-division power HNK Rijeka visits lower-league side NK Mladost Ždralovi in the Croatian Cup round of 16 on Wednesday.

The matchup at Ždralovi’s home ground is a classic cup contest, pitting a top-flight contender against a team from the lower tiers. Rijeka enters in strong form, coming off a dominant 4-0 league victory at Maksimir against Dinamo Zagreb on Sept. 17. Ždralovi, which competes in a lower division, earned a 1-0 road win at Radnik Križevci on Sept. 10 in its last match.

Statistical projections present a conflicting outlook. Interstat’s game simulator predicts a narrow 1-0 victory for the favored top-tier visitors. However, the same outlet’s ELO rating system gives the home side, Ždralovi, a 64.80 percent probability to win, likely factoring in cup competition variables and home-field advantage.

The cup format provides a major opportunity for an upset by Ždralovi, while Rijeka will aim to leverage its superior league quality to advance. The winner will move into the tournament’s quarterfinal stage.