BERGAMO, Italy (Interstat) — In a dramatic opening to the Serie A season that defied pregame projections, Atalanta and AC Milan played to a 1-1 draw on Tuesday afternoon at a rain-swept New Balance Arena.

The match, which saw a goal in the opening minutes and another just past the half-hour mark, concluded with the teams splitting the points in a result that was simultaneously predicted by one advanced metric and completely unforeseen by another.

Interstat’s game simulator had forecast the exact 1-1 final score, but its ELO system had given Atalanta a staggering 97.60 percent probability to win, a figure rendered meaningless by Milan’s resilient performance on the road.

The visiting Rossoneri stunned the home crowd almost immediately, finding the net just four minutes into the contest. The goal came from an unlikely source, as substitute midfielder Samuele Ricci, who had just entered the fray, leveled a precise strike to give Milan the early advantage. The assist was credited to fellow substitute Luka Modrić, the veteran playmaker who provided a moment of clarity in the chaotic opening moments.

Atalanta, heavily favored and playing in front of their home supporters, seemed rattled by the early concession. The home side’s frustrations began to show, and they found themselves on the receiving end of the game’s first yellow card when substitute Santiago Giménez was booked in the ninth minute for a reckless challenge.

As the first half progressed, Atalanta began to find its rhythm and apply sustained pressure on the Milan defense. The breakthrough finally came in the 35th minute. The equalizer was crafted by Giménez, who atoned for his earlier booking by delivering a perfectly weighted pass to forward Ademola Lookman. The Nigerian international made no mistake, slotting the ball home to bring the home side level and ultimately secure a share of the points.

The second half was a tense, physical affair with both teams searching for a winner but ultimately failing to break the deadlock. The match grew increasingly fractious as time wore on, with three yellow cards distributed in the final quarter-hour, including two in second-half stoppage time to Milan’s Matteo Gabbia and Atalanta’s Marco Brescianini following a scuffle. Modrić had also been shown a yellow card for Milan in the 77th minute for a tactical foul.

The result leaves both teams with identical records to start the new Serie A campaign. Each side now holds a record of zero wins, zero losses, and one draw, a single point from their first outing. Their overall records across all competitions for the young season also mirror each other at zero wins, zero losses, and one draw.

For AC Milan, the draw will feel like a victory earned through grit, having secured a point on the road against a team that was overwhelmingly expected to win. The immediate impact of substitutes Ricci and Modrić provided a crucial early goal that set the tone for their resilient defensive stand.

For Atalanta, the result is likely a source of frustration, as they were unable to convert their perceived superiority and home-field advantage into a winning start despite Lookman’s answering goal. The team will look to refine its finishing as the season progresses.

The opening afternoon in Italy’s top flight provided a compelling spectacle, demonstrating that pregame probabilities are settled on the pitch, not in a statistical model. Both clubs now turn their attention to their next fixtures, looking to secure their first victory of the 2025-26 season.