VILA DO CONDE, Portugal (Interstat) — In a stunning Primeira Liga upset that defied all statistical projections, Estoril routed Rio Ave 4-0 on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, powered by a second-half scoring explosion from substitute Yanis Begraoui.

The match, which saw Rio Ave reduced to 10 men early in the first half, was turned on its head by Estoril’s substitutes, who combined for all four goals in a comprehensive away victory.

The game’s pivotal moment came in the 21st minute when Rio Ave defender Jonathan Panzo was shown a straight red card, forcing the home side to play a man down for the majority of the contest. Despite the numerical disadvantage, the match remained scoreless until just before halftime.

The deadlock was broken in the 40th minute by Begraoui, who had been brought off the bench. The forward doubled his tally just before the halftime whistle, scoring again in the third minute of first-half stoppage time to give Estoril a commanding 2-0 lead at the break.

Begraoui was not finished, completing his hat trick in the 63rd minute to put the result beyond any doubt. Fellow substitute André Lacximicant added a fourth goal just minutes later to complete the rout. Estoril goalkeeper Cezary Miszta recorded an assist on one of the goals, a rare feat for a player in his position.

The lopsided scoreline was a shock considering the pregame forecasts. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, while its ELO rating system gave Rio Ave a 93.30 percent probability of winning the match.

The victory marked a significant turnaround for Estoril in league play. They entered the contest with a record of one win, three losses and four draws in the Primeira Liga. The win improves their league record to two wins, three losses and four draws. Across all competitions, Estoril now stands at two wins, three losses and four draws.

For Rio Ave, the heavy defeat at home is a major setback. They had been in stronger league form, coming into the match with a record of two wins, one loss and four draws. The loss drops their Primeira Liga record to two wins, two losses and four draws. Their overall record across all competitions moves to three wins, three losses and four draws.

The match was a physical affair, with three yellow cards issued. Estoril’s Jordan Holsgrove was booked in the 27th minute, followed by his teammate, goalkeeper Cezary Miszta, in the 68th minute. Rio Ave’s Clayton received a yellow card in the 76th minute.

Estoril’s previous result was a 1-1 home draw with Nacional on Oct. 26. Their last win before Saturday was a 2-1 victory at Os Belenenses on Oct. 19. Rio Ave was coming off a 2-1 away win against Estrela Amadora on Oct. 25, but had suffered a 3-2 loss to lower-division Sintrense in the Taça de Portugal on Oct. 19.

Looking ahead, Estoril will host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Friday, Nov. 7. Rio Ave’s next fixture is an away match against Vizela on Thursday, Nov. 6.