BOLOGNA, Italy (Interstat) — Fiorentina opened its Serie A campaign with a dramatic 2-1 comeback victory over Bologna on Sunday, overcoming a dominant first-half performance from the hosts and a staggering pregame probability that heavily favored the home side.

Playing at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna controlled the early proceedings and were rewarded in the 19th minute. A well-worked move was finished by substitute Rolando Mandragora, who had entered the match earlier due to an injury. The goal solidified Bologna’s commanding start, aligning with Interstat’s ELO system projection that gave the home team an 86.70 percent probability to win.

Bologna’s momentum, however, was disrupted just before halftime. In the 45th minute, Fiorentina’s own substitute, Roberto Piccoli, found the equalizer against the run of play. The goal shifted the complexion of the match entirely, sending the teams into the break level at 1-1 and overturning the initial projection from Interstat’s game simulator, which had predicted a 1-1 draw.

The second half saw a more balanced and tense contest. Bologna defender Emil Holm received a yellow card in the 38th minute of the match, and Fiorentina defender Juan Miranda was booked in the 77th minute as both teams battled for control. The decisive moment arrived with just two minutes remaining in regulation. Fiorentina midfielder Giovanni Fabbian completed the turnaround, scoring in the 88th minute to stun the home crowd. The assist was credited to Lewis Ferguson, who later received a yellow card in the 90th minute as tensions flared in the match’s dying moments.

The victory, sealed by Fabbian’s late strike, gave Fiorentina a winning start to the Serie A season, moving its league record to 1 win and 0 losses. Bologna, which had entered the match as overwhelming favorites based on statistical models, begins its campaign with a disappointing 0-1 record. Both teams’ overall records across all competitions mirror their Serie A results after this opening fixture.

Key performances included the impactful substitutions from both sides. Mandragora and Piccoli each scored after entering the match, while defenders Holm and Miranda provided assists from the back for their respective teams. The result underscored the unpredictable nature of the opening weekend, where pregame analytics were ultimately undone by a resilient Fiorentina side that capitalized on its critical chances.