PODGORICA, Montenegro (Interstat) — In a wild, back-and-forth match that defied statistical projections, Croatia maintained its unbeaten run in World Cup qualifying with a 3-2 victory over Montenegro on Monday at Stadion Pod Goricom.

The game, organized by FIFA for World Cup qualification, was a dramatic departure from the teams’ previous meeting just over two months prior, when Croatia secured a comfortable 4-0 win. This time, the hosts pushed the favored Croatians to the brink in a match that featured five total goals and four yellow cards.

Montenegro stunned the visitors with a blistering start, finding the net twice within the opening 20 minutes. Milutin Osmajić opened the scoring just three minutes into the contest, sending the home crowd into a frenzy. The lead was doubled in the 17th minute when Nikola Krstović finished a play to put Montenegro in a commanding early position.

Croatia, which entered the match with a dominant record in the competition, was held scoreless through the first half. The game’s physical nature was evident as three yellow cards were issued in a seven-minute span midway through the first half, with Croatia’s Mario Pašalić, Montenegro’s Stefan Lončar and Montenegro’s Slobodan Rubežić all being booked.

The momentum shifted decisively in the second half. Croatia’s coach turned to his bench, and the substitutes delivered. Kristijan Jakić came on and pulled a goal back for Croatia in the 72nd minute, cutting the deficit to 2-1 and swinging the match’s momentum.

The comeback was completed with just three minutes remaining in regulation. Another substitute, Nikola Vlašić, scored the equalizer in the 87th minute to make it 2-2. Before the home side could regroup, Croatia struck again, with veteran Ivan Perišić, also a second-half substitute, netting the game-winner to complete a stunning late turnaround.

The final score of 3-2 for Croatia stood in stark contrast to the pregame projection from Interstat, whose game simulator had predicted a 1-1 draw. The firm’s ELO system had given Croatia an 84.6 percent probability to win, a forecast that looked deeply uncertain for much of the match.

The result solidifies Croatia’s strong position in its qualifying group. The team now holds a record of five wins and one draw through six matches in this competition, remaining undefeated. Across all competitions this season, Croatia is now 7-0-1.

For Montenegro, the heartbreaking loss leaves its qualifying record at three wins, two losses and one draw. Its overall record across all competitions this season falls to 3-4-1. Despite the loss, the performance marked a significant improvement over its 4-0 loss to Croatia in September and a 4-0 defeat to the Faroe Islands in October.

Key individual performances included a strong showing from Montenegro’s Milutin Osmajić, who recorded a goal and an assist but was also shown a yellow card in the 70th minute. For Croatia, the substitutes made the difference, with Nikola Vlašić and Ivan Perišić scoring crucial late goals, and Mario Pašalić contributing an assist despite his early booking.

Croatia’s previous result was a 3-1 win over the Faroe Islands last Friday. Montenegro was coming off a 2-1 victory against Gibraltar on the same day. Croatia’s next fixtures will continue its pursuit of a World Cup berth, while Montenegro will look to rebound from the narrow defeat.