SAN SEBASTIAN, Spain (Interstat) — In a wild Basque Country derby that defied pregame projections, Real Sociedad edged rival Athletic Bilbao 3-2 on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, in a La Liga match at Reale Arena.

The game, which featured a flurry of first-half goals and a dramatic winner in second-half stoppage time, delivered a thrilling spectacle that surpassed the conservative prediction of a 1-1 draw from Interstat’s game simulator. The same analytics system had given Real Sociedad a 97.20 percent probability to win, a forecast that was ultimately proven correct, but only after the home side survived a fierce challenge from their visitors.

The match ignited with a three-goal explosion in a dizzying nine-minute span before halftime. Real Sociedad’s Brais Méndez opened the scoring in the 38th minute, giving the home side an early lead. That advantage was short-lived, however, as Athletic Bilbao’s substitute striker Gorka Guruzeta leveled the score just four minutes later in the 42nd minute.

The frantic pace continued, and Real Sociedad reclaimed the lead before the break. Forward Gonçalo Guedes found the net in the 47th minute, sending the teams into halftime with the home side leading 2-1.

The second half saw the intensity ratchet up, reflected in a series of yellow cards. Athletic Bilbao’s substitute Ruiz de Galarreta was booked in the 65th minute, and Real Sociedad midfielder Jon Gorrotxategi received a yellow in the 77th minute.

Athletic Bilbao, refusing to capitulate, found an equalizer in the 79th minute through another substitute, Roberto Navarro, setting up a tense final quarter-hour with the score deadlocked at 2-2.

As the match entered second-half stoppage time, it appeared headed for a draw. But the dramatic conclusion arrived in the 92nd minute. Gorrotxategi, who had earlier been cautioned, redeemed himself by scoring the decisive goal, completing a standout personal performance with a goal and an assist.

The late winner sparked a fiery close to the match, with three yellow cards issued in the extended stoppage time. Real Sociedad defender Jon Aramburu and Athletic Bilbao substitute Oihan Sancet were both booked in the 99th minute, while Athletic’s Yuri Berchiche had received a yellow in the 96th minute.

With the victory, Real Sociedad begins its La Liga campaign with one win and no losses, while also moving to a perfect record across all competitions this season. Athletic Bilbao starts its league season with the reverse, registering no wins and one loss, a record that also reflects its standing in all competitions.

The key individual performances underscored the team result. Gorrotxategi was the engine for Real Sociedad, directly contributing to two of the three goals. His late winner, combined with his earlier assist, made him the most influential player on the pitch. For Athletic Bilbao, the impact came from the bench, with substitutes Guruzeta and Navarro providing the goals that kept the visitors in contention until the final moments.