LISBON, Portugal (Interstat) — Sport Lisboa e Benfica delivered a stunning 4-2 upset over Real Madrid W in the Champions League on Wednesday at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, defying overwhelming pregame projections.

Interstat’s metrics gave Real Madrid W a 93 percent probability to win, but Benfica dominated. Midfielder Andreas Schjelderup scored twice, and substitute Kylian Mbappé added two more goals for the hosts. Real Madrid’s only reply came from an unlikely source, a 98th-minute goal by goalkeeper Anatolii Trubin.

The match was marred by 10 yellow cards and two red cards issued to Real Madrid substitutes Rodrygo and Raúl Asencio in second-half stoppage time. Benfica begins its European campaign with a win, while Real Madrid W opens with a loss.