BAKU, Azerbaijan (Dec. 10, 2025) (Interstat) — AFC Ajax delivered a stunning upset Wednesday, overcoming massive odds to defeat Qarabag 4-2 in a Champions League group stage match at Tofiq Bəhramov Stadium.

Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 4-0 win for Qarabag, which held a 98.6% win probability pre-match. The home side led 2-1 at halftime after goals from Camilo Marques and Matheus Silva answered an early strike from Ajax’s Kasper Dolberg.

The Dutch visitors dominated the final phase, however. Substitute Oscar Gloukh led the comeback with two goals, including a 90th-minute clincher. Fellow substitute Anton Gaaei also scored. Ajax defender Youri Baas received a yellow card in first-half stoppage time.

The victory marked a winning start to the Champions League campaign for Ajax, while Qarabag began its tournament with a loss.