ISTRES, France (Interstat) — In a tightly contested French National 2 match defying pregame projections, visiting Rumilly Vallieres edged Istres 1-0 on a late goal from substitute Quentin Fouley at Stade Parsemain on Friday.

The match, played on Halloween afternoon, saw the underdog visitors from Rumilly secure a vital road victory, handing Istres its third loss of the league campaign. The result was a surprise to statistical models, which heavily favored the home side. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, and its ELO rating system gave Istres a 64.8 percent probability of victory.

The game’s lone breakthrough came in the 66th minute, a product of decisive substitutions from the Rumilly Vallieres bench. Nicolas Garby, who had also entered the match as a substitute, provided the assist on Fouley’s decisive strike, breaking a deadlock in a match characterized by physical play and frequent cautions.

The victory improves Rumilly Vallieres to a record of four wins, one loss and three draws in National 2 play this season, solidifying their position in the upper half of the table. The loss leaves Istres with a record of three wins, three losses and four draws, reflecting a season of inconsistency.

The first half set a fractious tone, with both teams earning a yellow card before the break. Istres’ Cyril Martin-Pichon was booked in the 24th minute, followed by a caution for Rumilly’s Iroy Eckenfelder in the 45th minute.

The physicality continued after Fouley’s goal, with three yellow cards issued in a span of eight minutes. Rumilly’s goal-scorer, Bastian Badu, was shown a yellow card in the 74th minute. A flashpoint then occurred in the 82nd minute, with yellow cards issued simultaneously to Rumilly’s Nicolas Garby and Istres’ Adam Yahi.

The match pitted two teams with contrasting recent form. Rumilly Vallieres entered the contest unbeaten in its last three outings, including a 3-2 victory over Hyeres and draws against Andrezieux and St Maur Lusitanos. Their only loss this season came on the road against Grand Ouest Association Lyonnaise FC on Aug. 30.

Istres, meanwhile, was coming off a dominant 4-1 road win against Limonest on Oct. 18, which had followed a 2-1 victory at Saint-Priest. However, the team has struggled for results at Stade Parsemain, with this loss adding to a home defeat against Grand Ouest Association Lyonnaise FC in August.

Looking ahead, both teams resume their National 2 schedules on Saturday, Nov. 8. Rumilly Vallieres will look to build on this victory when they host Limonest. Istres, seeking to rebound from this home defeat, will travel to face Frejus St-Raphael.

The schedule for Rumilly Vallieres continues with a series of challenging matches, including a trip to Saint-Priest on Nov. 22 and a home fixture against Toulon on Dec. 13. Istres faces a similar gauntlet, hosting Toulon on Nov. 22 and Grasse on Dec. 13, as both clubs navigate the heart of the National 2 season.