FÈS, Morocco (Dec. 23, 2025) (Interstat) — Nigeria rallied to defeat Tanzania 2-1 in an Africa Cup of Nations group stage match Tuesday at Complexe Sportif de Fès. The result defied a pregame projection from Interstat, whose simulator had predicted a 1-0 Tanzania victory.

Defender Semi Ajayi opened the scoring for Nigeria with a header in the 36th minute. Tanzania substitute Charles M’Mombwa leveled the match with a right-footed strike in the 50th minute, but Nigeria’s Ademola Lookman responded just two minutes later with the decisive left-footed goal. Lookman, who also assisted on Ajayi’s goal, received a yellow card in the 58th minute.

The victory gave Nigeria a winning start in the competition, while Tanzania began its campaign with a loss. Nigeria’s win probability was rated at 65.3 percent by Interstat’s ELO system pregame.