BILLERICAY, England (Interstat) — Bath City defeated Billericay Town 3-1 on Wednesday in an FA Trophy match at AGP Arena, overcoming a statistical projection that heavily favored the hosts.

Interstat’s simulator had predicted a 2-1 win for Billericay Town, which was given a 65.1% probability to win. Bath City defied those odds with goals from Elliott Frear in the 15th minute, Dan Hayfield in the 48th and Luke Spokes in the 77th. John Ufuah scored the lone goal for Billericay Town in the 57th minute.

The result improves Bath City’s FA Trophy record to one win and one draw. Billericay Town’s record in the competition falls to one win and two losses.