BILLERICAY, England (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of pregame projections, Bath City delivered a commanding 3-1 victory over Billericay Town on Wednesday in the third round of England’s FA Trophy competition at AGP Arena.

The result defied the statistical forecasts, which heavily favored the home side. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 2-1 win for Billericay Town, and its ELO rating system gave the Blues a 65.1 percent probability of advancing.

Bath City, the visiting Romans, seized control early. Winger Elliott Frear, a 5-foot-8 native of Exeter, opened the scoring in the 15th minute, providing a crucial early advantage for a team seeking consistency. The lead was doubled just after halftime when midfielder Dan Hayfield found the net in the 48th minute, putting Billericay Town under significant pressure.

The home side sparked a brief rally in the 57th minute as midfielder John Ufuah pulled a goal back, offering hope of a comeback. However, Bath City midfielder Luke Spokes, a Bristol native, extinguished those hopes with a decisive third goal in the 77th minute, securing passage to the next round. Spokes was substituted two minutes from full time, his work complete.

The comprehensive defeat leaves Billericay Town with a record of 1 win, 2 losses and 1 draw in this season’s FA Trophy. Their overall form across all competitions now stands at 4 wins, 3 losses and 5 draws. The loss adds to a mixed run of recent results for the club, which includes a 5-0 victory over Aveley on Oct. 18 but also a 5-0 defeat to Bishops Stortford on Oct. 25.

For Bath City, the victory marks a positive turn in their Trophy campaign, improving their record in the competition to 1 win, 0 losses and 1 draw. The win provides a boost to their overall season record, which now stands at 8 wins, 12 losses and 9 draws across all fixtures. The result builds on a 3-2 victory over Worthing in their last outing on Jan. 24, helping to offset a stretch that included only one win in their previous five matches.

Bath City’s attention now returns to the National League South, where they face a congested schedule. They are set to host Hemel Hempstead Town this Saturday, Feb. 7, followed by an away match at AFC Totton on Tuesday, Feb. 10.

Billericay Town’s FA Trophy journey ends with this third-round defeat, while Bath City advances to the fourth round draw.