DURANGO, Mexico (Interstat) — Durango and Raya2 played to a 1-1 draw on Saturday in a Liga de Expansión MX match that defied both statistical projections and a frantic early pace of scoring.

The Week 12 contest at Estadio Francisco Zarco saw three goals in the opening seven minutes before both defenses settled in, with the final result matching the pregame projection from Interstat’s simulator but contradicting its ELO system, which had given the home side an 80.70 percent probability of victory.

The visiting Raya2 side, representing Club León’s reserve team, struck first and fastest. Midfielder Michell Adalberto Rodríguez González of Poza Rica de Hidalgo opened the scoring just three minutes into the match, giving his team an early advantage.

That lead was shockingly short-lived. Durango responded with two goals in a devastating four-minute span. Cruz Javier Alejandro Leal Ruíz, a midfielder from Guadalupe, equalized in the fifth minute. He was followed immediately by attacker Brandon Rosas Cruz, who found the net in the seventh minute to complete the rapid turnaround and put Durango ahead 2-1.

The chaotic start gave way to a more controlled midfield battle until the final moments of the first half. Just before the break, Durango appeared to extend its lead when midfielder Wiliam Oswaldo Guzmán Aguilar of Guadalajara scored in the 39th minute. However, Rodríguez González struck again for Raya2 in first-half stoppage time, netting his second of the match in the 45+1 minute to pull the visitors level at 2-2.

The second half failed to produce another goal despite several cautions. The physical contest saw five yellow cards issued, three to Raya2 players and two to Durango, including one in the 90+1 minute to Durango’s José Antonio Hernández Cruz as tensions flared late.

With the draw, both teams saw their records move to an identical 2-2-2 in Liga de Expansión MX play this season. The result extended Durango’s unbeaten streak at home to start the campaign, following a draw with Tlaxcala in March. For Raya2, the road point halted a two-match swing of extreme results, which included a 5-0 win over Dorados and a 3-0 loss to Tlaxcala in their previous outings.

The match concluded a busy stretch for both clubs. Durango was coming off a 3-1 road loss to Alebrijes de Oaxaca on April 5. Raya2 entered the match following its decisive victory over Dorados on the same date. The shared point leaves both teams in the middle of the table as the season approaches its midpoint.