QUETZALTENANGO, Guatemala (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of fortune, Xelajú suffered a dramatic 3-1 home defeat to Xinabajul on Saturday in Liga Nacional play, a result that defied both pregame projections and the early flow of the match at Estadio Mario Camposeco.

The Week 7 contest began perfectly for the hosts, with Oliver Alexander Rodas silencing the visiting supporters just three minutes after kickoff. The early goal seemed to confirm the statistical forecasts, which heavily favored Xelajú and projected a narrow victory.

However, the match turned decisively in the second half. Xinabajul, demonstrating the resilience that has characterized its strong start to the season, found an equalizer in the 55th minute through Marvin José Ceballos Flores. The goal shifted the momentum entirely and precipitated a stunning collapse by the home side.

In a frantic two-minute span late in the game, Xelajú’s defense unraveled. José Carranza put Xinabajul ahead for good in the 74th minute, completing the visitors’ comeback. Before Xelajú could regroup, Darwin Gregorio Lom Moscoso struck again in the 76th minute, sealing a memorable victory for the traveling club.

The result marked a significant double for Xinabajul over its opponent this season, having also secured a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture on March 15. It improves Xinabajul’s record in the Liga Nacional to three wins and two losses, solidifying a promising position in the early season table. For Xelajú, the defeat adds to a campaign of inconsistency, leaving its league record at an even 20 wins, 19 losses and nine draws.

The loss is particularly jarring given the context. Xelajú entered the match with a dominant historical probability of winning, according to statistical models, and was playing in front of its home supporters in Quetzaltenango. The final scoreline stood in stark contrast to the pregame simulation, which had predicted a 1-1 draw.

Xinabajul’s victory continues a positive run of form, having now won three of its last four matches across all competitions, including a 1-0 victory over Malacateco just one day prior to this match. Xelajú, meanwhile, must quickly regroup from a defeat that saw a promising start dissolve into a second-half nightmare. The team’s schedule offers little respite, with a match against Mixco next on the agenda later the same day.

The game, organized by Guatemala’s Liga Nacional, underscored the unpredictable nature of the competition, where pregame analytics and home-field advantage can be swiftly overturned by determined opposition and critical moments of execution.