COBÁN, Guatemala (Interstat) — Achuapa secured a surprising road victory, defeating Coban Imperial 1-0 on Sunday in Week 3 of Guatemala’s Liga Nacional at Estadio Verapaz Jose Angel Rossi.

The lone goal, scored in the 28th minute, stood as the decider in a match where Coban Imperial was heavily favored. Statistical models had projected a draw and gave the home side an 80 percent probability to win.

The result gives Achuapa its first win of the domestic season, improving its record to 1-0. Coban Imperial falls to 0-1. The match was marred by yellow cards shown to Coban Imperial’s Manuel López in the 37th minute and Achuapa’s Juan Osorio in the 69th.