MOGI DAS CRUZES, Brazil (Interstat) — Sao Bento defeated Noroeste 2-0 on Wednesday in a Copa Paulista match at Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro, defying pregame projections.

Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, and its ELO system gave Noroeste a 54% probability to win. Sao Bento improved its tournament record to one win and one draw, while Noroeste suffered its first loss.

Matheus da Conceição Nascimento opened the scoring for Sao Bento in the 42nd minute. Jonatas Barbosa Rodrigues sealed the victory with a goal in the 81st minute. The match was contentious, with Sao Bento receiving four yellow cards and Noroeste receiving one.