MARTIN, Tenn. (Interstat) — In a stunning upset defying nearly all pregame projections, the Western Illinois Leathernecks were defeated by the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 32-31 on a dramatic, last-minute blocked field goal Saturday at Hardy M. Graham Stadium.

The Skyhawks, who were given a 94 percent probability to win by statistical models and entered as 17-point favorites, mounted a furious fourth-quarter comeback to erase an 11-point deficit and secure their first victory of the season. Both teams now hold identical records of one win and five losses.

Western Illinois appeared to be in control for much of the contest, leading 31-20 entering the final quarter behind a prolific passing attack. Quarterback Cason Carswell, a 6-foot-3, 190-pound sophomore from Mason, Michigan, orchestrated the offense efficiently, completing 21 of 30 passes for 327 yards and two touchdowns.

The Leathernecks struck first in an offensive shootout. Carswell connected with receiver Demari Davis on a 28-yard touchdown pass midway through the first quarter to cap an 80-yard drive. Davis, a junior from San Pablo, California, finished with four catches for 109 yards and the score.

Tennessee-Martin answered promptly with a methodical 68-yard drive, finished by a 6-yard touchdown run from Thomas Ansley. The teams traded scores throughout the first half, with Western Illinois maintaining a narrow lead. Just before halftime, Carswell found tight end Alex Williams for an 18-yard touchdown pass, giving the Leathernecks a 31-20 advantage after a failed two-point conversion attempt.

The third quarter saw only an Antonio Chadha 24-yard field goal for Western Illinois, extending their lead. The Leathernecks’ defense had created a crucial turnover earlier in the period when Christian Pierce recovered a Jase Bauer fumble, leading to the three points.

The momentum shifted decisively in the fourth quarter. Skyhawks quarterback Jase Bauer, a 6-foot-3, 215-pound junior from Ankeny, Iowa, willed his team back into the game. He capped a 12-play, 78-yard drive with a 2-yard touchdown run, though a failed two-point conversion kept the score at 31-26.

After forcing a Western Illinois punt, the Skyhawks got the ball back with under four minutes to play. Bauer engineered a rapid, 65-yard scoring drive in just five plays, highlighted by a 34-yard completion to tight end Hyatt Timosciek and a 29-yard catch by Phaizon Wilson. Bauer punched it in from 2 yards out for his second rushing touchdown of the day to tie the game. The ensuing two-point conversion attempt failed, leaving the Skyhawks with a precarious one-point lead with 1:57 remaining.

Carswell and the Leathernecks were not finished. Starting at their own 25-yard line, Carswell methodically moved Western Illinois down the field, completing passes to Markell Holman and Tristin Duncan to reach the Tennessee-Martin 33-yard line. A potential 33-yard touchdown run by Holman was nullified by a penalty, stalling the drive and setting up a 48-yard field goal attempt for the win with 35 seconds left.

Chadha’s kick was blocked by UT Martin’s Lebron Edmond, sealing the improbable victory for the home team. The Skyhawks took a knee to run out the clock.

Despite the loss, Western Illinois had several standout performances. Running back Markell Holman from Philadelphia rushed for 59 yards and two touchdowns while also catching six passes for 48 yards. Receiver Tristin Duncan of Effingham, Illinois, added five receptions for 82 yards.

For Tennessee-Martin, Bauer finished 19 of 28 for 235 yards, one touchdown through the air, and two more on the ground. Running back John Gentry from Houston was a workhorse, rushing for 104 yards on 15 carries. Timosciek was Bauer’s top target, hauling in four passes for 69 yards.

The game’s total of 63 points narrowly went under the over/under line of 64.5.

Western Illinois will look to rebound next Saturday when they host Charleston Southern. Tennessee-Martin travels to face Gardner-Webb.