INDIANAPOLIS (Interstat) — A pivotal AFC South clash is set for Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday as the Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans. The Colts (8-3), riding high in the division, look to bounce back from a tough overtime loss, while the surging Texans (6-5) aim to continue their climb in the standings.

Indianapolis comes in after a narrow 23-20 road defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. Quarterback Daniel Jones, who threw for 177 yards and two touchdowns while adding 16 yards on the ground, will look to lead an offense that has been potent at home. The Colts have won four of their last five games.

Houston arrives with momentum, having won three of its last four, including a 23-19 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Nov. 20. Quarterback Davis Mills accounted for two touchdowns in that win, and the Texans’ ground game, led by Woody Marks, has provided balance. Despite their winning streak, the Texans are a 3-point underdog according to oddsmakers.

The Interstat game simulator projects a 34-22 victory for the Colts. The over/under is set at 44.5 points.

This contest is the first of two meetings between the division rivals in the final month of the season, with a rematch scheduled for Jan. 3 in Houston.