GREEN BAY, Wis. (Interstat) — In a stunning upset defying overwhelming odds, the Carolina Panthers relied on a punishing ground game and a resilient defense to edge the Green Bay Packers 16-13 on Sunday at a frigid Lambeau Field.

The victory, sealed by a 49-yard field goal from Ryan Fitzgerald as time expired, improved Carolina’s record to 5-4, while the Packers fell to 5-2.

The game was a defensive struggle from the outset, a stark contrast to the high-scoring affair projected by pregame analytics. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a final score of Green Bay 32, Carolina 20, and its ELO system gave the Packers a 95.2 percent probability to win. Carolina, however, entered the game as a 13.5-point underdog and played with a purpose that belied those numbers.

The first quarter was a scoreless affair dominated by punts and field position. The Panthers broke the deadlock in the second quarter, capitalizing on a sustained drive. The series was keyed by a 29-yard run from Rico Dowdle and a 22-yard pass from Bryce Young to Xavier Legette. Dowdle finished the drive with a 5-yard touchdown run up the middle, and Fitzgerald’s extra point gave Carolina a 7-0 lead.

Green Bay responded with a pair of Brandon McManus field goals. The first, from 49 yards, capped a drive kept alive by a 52-yard deep pass from Jordan Love to Christian Watson. The second, a 27-yard kick as the first half expired, was set up by a 30-yard connection from Love to Romeo Doubs, cutting Carolina’s lead to 7-6 at the break.

The Panthers extended their lead in the third quarter, again on the strength of Dowdle’s legs. After a Tre’von Moehrig interception of a Love pass intended for Watson gave Carolina prime field position, the Panthers methodically drove downfield. Dowdle plunged in from 1 yard out for his second touchdown of the day. However, a subsequent unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Dowdle pushed the extra point attempt back, and Fitzgerald’s kick sailed short, leaving the score at 13-6.

Green Bay’s offense, which had moved the ball between the 20-yard lines but struggled to find the end zone, finally broke through early in the fourth quarter. A 12-play, 71-yard drive was culminated by a 1-yard touchdown run from Josh Jacobs. McManus’s extra point tied the game at 13-13 with just over two minutes remaining.

Carolina’s final drive began at its own 29-yard line with 2:28 on the clock. The Panthers put the game in the hands of Dowdle and their offensive line. Dowdle ripped off a 19-yard run to the Green Bay 31, setting up Fitzgerald for the game-winning kick. The rookie kicker was perfect from 49 yards, sending the Panthers home with a monumental victory.

The story of the game was Carolina’s rushing attack, led by Dowdle, who finished with 130 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. In contrast, the Panthers’ passing game was managed carefully, with quarterback Bryce Young completing 11 of 20 passes for 102 yards and adding 9 yards on the ground.

For Green Bay, Jordan Love was efficient, completing 26 of 37 passes for 273 yards, but he was intercepted once and the Packers were forced to settle for field goals on multiple promising drives. Josh Jacobs led the Packers’ ground game with 87 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Romeo Doubs was Love’s primary target, hauling in seven receptions for 91 yards.

Defensively, Carolina was led by linebacker Christian Rozeboom, who racked up 15 tackles. For Green Bay, safety Xavier McKinney had a strong all-around game with nine tackles, a sack and a critical interception in the first half.

The announced attendance was 77,864. Carolina hosts the New Orleans Saints next Sunday, while Green Bay prepares to face the Philadelphia Eagles at home on Monday, Nov. 10.