NEW YORK (Interstat) — Rain is expected at Yankee Stadium on Monday night, where the New York Yankees open a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York enters with a 63-49 record, while St. Louis is 55-57. The Yankees beat the Chicago Cubs 2-1 on Sunday behind Gerrit Cole, who allowed one earned run on four hits over 5 2/3 innings while striking out five. José Caballero went 2-for-3 with a home run and two RBIs, and David Bednar pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings.

St. Louis won 5-1 at Toronto on Sunday. Matthew Liberatore threw six scoreless innings, allowing one hit and striking out seven. Ryne Stanek and Riley O’Brien each added one scoreless inning of relief.

Liberatore struggled in his previous two starts, allowing three earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Cubs and five earned runs against the Angels. But he rebounded with a performance similar to his July 11 outing against Atlanta, when he also threw six shutout innings.

Cole has been consistent. In his last two starts, he allowed one earned run and zero, respectively. He struck out seven over six innings against the White Sox on July 28 and has at least five strikeouts in four of his past five outings.

The forecast calls for 77 degrees with rain at game time, which could impact both offenses and bullpens.

Interstat’s game simulator projects a 5-2 Yankees victory and gives New York a 62.5 percent probability to win. The model also projects New York favored by 1.5 runs, with a total of 8.

The Yankees are six games above .500. The Cardinals are two games under .500. New York has won three of its past four, while St. Louis has lost seven of its past nine.

Caballero’s bat will be key after his winning RBI double and home run performance Sunday. For St. Louis, Liberatore’s ability to limit hits will be crucial, especially after allowing eight hits against the Cubs and nine against the Angels earlier this month.

This series is the start of an important stretch for both teams. After Monday’s opener, the teams meet again Tuesday and Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. St. Louis then returns home to host Colorado, while New York welcomes Atlanta.

The Yankees have the better record, home-field advantage and the edge in the projections. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have shown flashes of quality, particularly when Liberatore is on the mound. With rain in the forecast, the team that adjusts best in the conditions could take the opening game.