NEW YORK (Interstat) — In a tense, back-and-forth contest that defied pregame projections, the New York Mets edged the Minnesota Twins 3-2 on Wednesday night at Citi Field, snapping a three-game skid and securing just their eighth victory of a difficult young season.

A crowd of 32,665 watched as the Mets, installed as favorites but struggling with a 7-16 record entering the game, scratched out a late run against the Twins bullpen to break a 2-2 deadlock and even this brief two-game series at a game apiece.

The most critical sequence unfolded in the bottom of the eighth inning. With the score tied, Juan Soto ignited the rally with a sharp line-drive single to right off Twins reliever Justin Topa. After a fly out, Topa walked Brett Baty, prompting Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli to summon left-hander Taylor Rogers. Rogers immediately walked Francisco Alvarez, loading the bases with one out. Mark Vientos then delivered the decisive blow, lofting a fly ball to right field that fell for a single, scoring Baty with the go-ahead run. Rogers escaped further damage, but the lone run proved enough.

The victory went to Luke Weaver (2-0), who recorded four outs in relief, including three via strikeout. Taylor Rogers (0-1) took the loss, charged with the deciding run. Brooks Raley recorded the final two outs of the eighth, and the Mets turned to Luke Weaver for a scoreless ninth to seal the win.

The game was a stark contrast to statistical forecasts. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 5-1 Twins victory, though its ELO rating system gave the Mets a 57.8% probability to win. The final combined score of five runs landed well under an over/under line set at 8.

The Mets drew first blood in the opening frame against Twins starter Connor Prielipp. Bo Bichette led off with a double, advanced to third on a fly out, and scored on an RBI single from Francisco Lindor. Prielipp, in his four innings of work, allowed two runs on four hits, striking out six.

Minnesota tied the game in the fourth against Mets starter Clay Holmes. Trevor Larnach doubled, moved to third on a groundout, and scored on Victor Caratini’s sacrifice fly to center. The Mets responded immediately in their half of the fourth. Lindor singled and scored on a ringing double to center by Alvarez, restoring New York’s one-run lead.

The Twins’ power provided the next equalizer. Leading off the sixth inning, Byron Buxton launched a solo home run, his fifth of the season, deep to left field off Holmes to knot the score at 2-2. Minnesota threatened for more later in the inning, putting runners on second and third with one out, but Holmes induced an inning-ending popout to escape the jam.

Holmes was the anchor for the Mets, delivering a standout performance when the team desperately needed length from its starter. He worked seven strong innings, surrendering two runs on five hits, walking one and striking out three. This effort provided stability for a Mets club that had lost 10 of its previous 12 games.

The Twins, who fell to an even 12-12, missed several opportunities. They went 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position and left seven men on base, including the bases loaded in the eighth inning when Luke Keaschall popped out to the catcher in foul territory.

Beyond the key contributors, Eric Orze provided two critical strikeouts in a scoreless seventh for Minnesota, and Kendry Rojas tossed two scoreless frames in relief. For New York, Lindor finished 2 for 2 with an RBI and a run scored, while Alvarez drove in one and scored one.

The result sets up a quick turnaround and series finale on Thursday afternoon at Citi Field. The Twins will continue their road trip with a three-game set in Tampa Bay starting Friday, while the Mets will welcome the Colorado Rockies for a four-game series beginning Friday night.