TAMPA, Fla. (Interstat) — In a back-and-forth contest that defied pregame projections, the Tampa Bay Rays used a pair of timely home runs to outslug the Chicago Cubs 6-4 on Monday afternoon at George Steinbrenner Field.

A crowd of 25,114 watched as the Rays, installed as home underdogs, evened their season record at 5-5 by overcoming an early deficit. The Cubs, favored to win, fell to 4-6 despite a late solo homer.

The game’s pivotal sequence arrived in the bottom of the seventh inning, breaking a 4-4 deadlock. With two outs and a runner on first following a walk to Ben Williamson, Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda turned on a pitch and launched a two-run homer to right-center field. The blast provided the decisive runs and underscored a afternoon where the Rays capitalized on their limited opportunities, finishing with nine hits to the Cubs’ four.

Chicago had struck first, plating two runs in the second inning without the benefit of a hit until the final swing of the frame. Patience against Rays starter Shane McClanahan led to three walks, loading the bases with two outs. Nico Hoerner then delivered the Cubs’ first hit, a sharp two-run single to left field that scored Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson.

The lead was short-lived. Tampa Bay answered immediately in the bottom half against Cubs starter Jameson Taillon. After a leadoff single by Chandler Simpson, center fielder Cedric Mullins connected for a two-run homer to right field, tying the game. The Rays weren’t done, as a Taylor Walls double and a Yandy Díaz RBI single, compounded by a throwing error from Swanson, gave Tampa Bay a 3-2 edge.

The Cubs tied it in the top of the third on a solo homer from Junior Caminero, but Chicago clawed back to even the score at 4-4 in the sixth. Ian Happ and Carson Kelly led off with back-to-back doubles, and Busch brought Happ home with a sacrifice fly to center.

Both starting pitchers delivered solid but unspectacular outings. McClanahan went four innings for Tampa Bay, allowing two earned runs on one hit while striking out five but walking four. Taillon was charged with the loss for Chicago, working six innings and yielding three earned runs on seven hits with four strikeouts.

The Rays’ bullpen proved superior, silencing the Cubs’ bats after the sixth. Kevin Kelly earned the win with a scoreless seventh inning, and Hunter Bigge followed with 1 2/3 hitless frames. After Matt Shaw’s solo homer in the ninth brought Chicago within two, Bryan Baker entered to strike out Pete Crow-Armstrong and secure the save.

The Cubs’ offense struggled mightily outside of their two big innings, mustering only four hits total and striking out consistently against Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. The Rays, meanwhile, showcased a balanced attack, with Mullins and Aranda each driving in two runs.

The result flipped the script from the pregame analytics, which heavily favored the Cubs. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 4-3 Chicago victory, and its ELO system gave the Cubs a 54.2% probability to win. The combined 10 runs also went under the posted over/under line of 7.5.

The two teams will continue their three-game series on Tuesday afternoon in Tampa.